Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science，2008,77(1)：23-34

To understand the confounding fishing effect and physical influence on fish production, catch time series in the East China Seas were analyzed. Principal component analysis partitioned 18 catch time series into interannual trends and variations. While the trends were attributed to growth in fishing effort, variations in catches were related to precipitation and monsoon wind speed. Correlations of catch variations with the physical variables suggest that land-based runoff and monsoon circulation of the diluted coastal water masses are the physical forces dominating catch variability and the influences are largely through the associated nutrient supply on primary production. Runoff inputs nutrients to the coastal ecosystem, while monsoons drive their distribution. Offshore diffusion of the coastal water masses by the summer monsoon increases distribution and efficiency of nutrients and has a positive effect on fish production. Southerly transport of coastal currents alongshore by the winter monsoon confines nutrient distribution and induces nutrient loss from the northern waters. This process reduces overall and northern production, but increases production to the south. A long-term variation in catches was identified, which corresponds to a trend in the local winter monsoon as well as large-scale atmospheric changes. Prediction of the catch variation by the local wind speed suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation determines the trend in the local winter monsoon, and the local winter monsoon that drives nutrient distribution should be directly responsible for the long-term variation of fish production in the East China Seas.

邱永松，王跃中，陈作志